In our quarterly Advertising Expenditure Forecasts we no longer talk about developed and developing markets, because some of the markets that are normally lumped into the ‘developing’ category are among the biggest ad markets in the world, and are as developed as several in the ‘developed’ category.
Instead we distinguish between Rising and Mature Markets, based on their long-term rate of growth. We define Mature Markets as North America, Western Europe and Japan, and Rising Markets as everywhere else. Growth in Rising Markets can be volatile, and not every Rising Market grows every year, but in the long term, and in aggregate, they are driving most of the growth in global adspend.
Because of its sheer scale the US is still the biggest contributor of new ad dollars to the global market. Between 2013 and 2016 we expect the US to contribute 26% of the US$87 billion that will be added to global adspend. After the US, however, the biggest contributors are much younger and more dynamic. China comes second, accounting for 18% of additional ad dollars over this period, followed by Indonesia and Argentina, accounting for 7% and 6% respectively.
Seven of the ten largest contributors will be Rising Markets, contributing 44% of new adspend over the next three years. Overall, we forecast Rising Markets to contribute 59% of additional ad expenditure between 2013 and 2016, and to increase their share of the global market from 34% to 38%.
In 2013 China was the third-largest ad market in the world, behind the USA and Japan. China has been narrowing the gap with Japan rapidly over the last few years, and this year we expect it to overtake Japan to become the world’s second-largest ad market.
Indonesia was the thirteenth-largest ad market in 2013, but is rising quickly up the rankings. By 2016 we predict it will be tenth, pushing out Canada, which will fall to eleventh. We also expect South Korea to rise from ninth to seventh, pushing France and Australia down one place each.