Confidence in the global ad market is currently improving rapidly. We now forecast global adspend to rise 4.6% this year, up from our 4.1% forecast in December.
Over the past three months we have upgraded our forecasts for global growth by 0.5 percentage points, thanks in particular to improved economic growth in China and Argentina. Such a large revision to our forecasts is unusual; the last time we revised them upwards by so much was back in March 2011. We now expect the global ad market to reach US$578bn in 2018.
Our global forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are also above the forecasts we made three months ago, though not by so much. We forecast 4.4% growth in 2019 and 4.3% growth in 2020, both forecasts being up by 0.2 percentage points.
China’s economy has surprised analysts with particularly strong growth in early 2018, with industrial production and infrastructure spending beating expectations. Investment in manufacturing has picked up, and business confidence has increased. We now expect adspend to grow 8% this year, up from our 6% forecast in December. China is the world’s second biggest ad market, accounting for 15% of global adspend, so an upgrade here has a big effect on the global total. A notable development here is that television has fought back against strong competition from online video and is no longer losing adspend, which it did in 2014, 2015 and 2017. We expect 1% growth in television adspend in China this year, alongside 13% growth in online advertising.
Argentina has recovered from its 2016 recession more rapidly than expected. GDP grew 2.8% in 2017, beating the IMF’s forecast of 2.5% growth, fuelled by construction, agriculture and foreign investment. We now forecast that adspend will grow 1% in Argentina this year, up from our previous forecast of 2% decline, as consumer spending starts to rise again.
The Philippines and Ireland are also bright spots for ad market growth. The Philippines beat our expectations with 28% growth last year, and we have doubled our forecasts for this year from 11% to 22%. And new estimates of the true scale of digital activity in Ireland has boosted our forecasts of Irish market growth from just 1% to 7% in 2018.
The Philippines and Ireland are also bright spots for ad market growth. The Philippines beat our expectations with 28% growth last year, and we have doubled our forecasts for this year from 11% to 22%. And new estimates of the true scale of digital activity in Ireland has boosted our forecasts of Irish market growth from just 1% to 7% in 2018
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