Zenith’s latest Advertising Expenditure Forecasts, published today, reports continued resilience and forecasts 5.3% global advertising growth for 2023, which is above initial expectations given a healthier than expected Q3 for major digital advertisers. Global adspend growth is expected at 4.8% in 2024, excluding U.S. political spending*, aided by events such as the Olympics as well as a combination of continued advertiser spending in support of their brands and the positive impact of Chinese brands fueling growth.
Regional Comparison
Zenith’s outlook continues to support the expectation of healthy advertising growth across all regions through 2026 with mature markets driving largest adspend. The Americas are expected to continue as the fastest-growing region with 5.7% advertising growth in 2024. Europe continues to contribute meaningful growth (4.5%) due in part to online spending, while Asia-Pac (3.8%) remains impacted by China’s slower-than-expected recovery.
It is expected that North America will continue to provide the largest contributions to advertising growth through 2026, with adspend growing $55.8B – representing 44% of the overall global adspend growth during the period. The next largest growth contribution will come from Asia Pacific with $35.9B of additional adspend, followed by Western Europe and LATAM each contributing meaningful growth in the range of approximately $29B. These 4 regions represent more than 95%% of the world’s adspend. Other major markets such as Central/Eastern Europe and MENA will also make significant contributions to growth.
Category Breakdown
Adspend momentum remains steadily on an upward trajectory in large part due to the strong adoption of online propositions such as retail media and social media. Online continues to lead as the fastest-growing category, accounting for 59% of overall spending in 2024 and expected to increase to 61% in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.6%.
Zenith estimates video** adspend will account for nearly 30% of the overall advertising market and will grow at 2.1% CAGR between 2023 and 2026, supported by the growth of advertising on platforms like SVOD, FAST and other AVOD, which includes platforms such as YouTube and TikTok.
* To provide a more stable and representative projection of the advertising marketplace, Zenith now excludes all US political advertising spend from its Advertising Expenditure Forecasts – starting with this December 2023 release. Please note, given this change, historical data are not comparable.
**Video encompasses both linear TV and Broadcast Video on Demand, as well as CTV and FAST services, as well as video spend from platforms such as YouTube and TikTok, which Zenith regards as entertainment-based channels.
