The global advertising market will continue to maintain its resilience and Zenith forecasts a 4.4% growth in global advertising expenditure for 2023, according to its latest Advertising Expenditure Forecasts, published today. This figure is broadly consistent with the agency’s 4.5% forecasted growth in its December report.
The healthy advertising growth is forecasted to continue into 2024 – helped by the US Presidential elections and events such as the Olympics – with sustained growth in 2025. Continued growth of the overall video advertising market, particularly within non-linear TV platforms, a further rise in online search and social, and the robust pace of Retail Media growth across more geographies are fuelling the steadily increasing ad market. Global adspend growth is expected to accelerate 6.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025 to account for nearly $1 trillion in advertising spending in 2025.
North America is expected to continue to provide the biggest contribution to advertising growth between 2023 and 2025 with adspend growing US $53 billion – representing 41% of total adspend during the period. A healthy growth of 4.3% is expected in 2023 and Zenith forecasts advertising expenditure will then jump to 9.8% in 2024 thanks to the Presidential election and the Olympics.
Growth in Asia-Pacific is expected to remain strong with a 4.9% increase. We maintain our forecasts in China, the second-largest advertising market globally, to reflect signs that advertising growth is coming back even though the country’s economic recovery is not as swift as previously expected.
Advertising growth within Western Europe is forecast to grow 3.5% as sectors such as Out-of-Home and Online are expected to show improving trends as the year progresses. Latin American adspend is forecast to grow 4.5% as Brazil, which accounts for almost half of all advertising spend in the region, and Mexico are showing continued growth.
Online, including Retail Media, Search and Social Media, will continue to lead as the fastest-growing category, constituting 57% of overall adspend in 2023. Zenith forecasts an increase to 59% in 2025, with a compounded annual growth rate of 6.8%. Search and Social will continue to grow, but Retail Media will drive the category growth, with an estimated annual global spend of $129 billion in 2025 and an expected compounded annual growth rate of 11.5% from 2022 to 2025.
While the overall Online category continues to gain share, the fastest-growing sub categories are overwhelmingly within the Video space. Zenith forecasts a compounded growth rate of 25% between 2022 and 2025 within the Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) space. Free ad-supported TV (FAST) and Advertising-Based Video on Demand (AVOD) are also expected to experience double-digit growth rates through 2025, a sign that consumers are seeking out free and low-cost options to supplement their SVOD subscriptions.