Online video and paid search are driving the growth in global adspend, as advertisers focus on personalised and targeted communications.

Advertisers are increasing both the efficiency and effectiveness of campaigns by using online video and paid search to target with pinpoint accuracy and serve personalised messages. We forecast that between 2018 and 2021, online video advertising will grow at an average of 18% a year, twice as fast as other forms of internet display advertising and well ahead of any other channel.

Paid search is not growing as quickly in percentage terms – it will grow at an average of 7% a year over this period – but in dollar terms it will contribute even more to global growth than online video. The application of AI techniques, better location targeting, integration with commerce and the rise of ‘in the moment’ search are all making search more effective for advertisers. We forecast that between 2018 and 2021, online video advertising will grow by US$20bn, while paid search will grow by US$22bn. Between them these two channels will account for 60% of the extra ad dollars added to the market over this time.

Advertisers commonly use online video together with traditional television, combining television’s broad reach and immersive experience with online video’s ability to target and optimise frequency. Taken together, these two media are becoming more important to advertisers’ brand-building campaigns. Their combined share of adspend in ‘display’ media (i.e. all media except paid search and classified advertising) has risen from 46.2% in 2012 to 48.4% this year. By 2021 we expect television and video to have a combined 48.8% share of global ‘display’ – a higher share than television ever achieved on its own. Television and online video are working harder for advertisers than ever before.

Print titles continue to lose market share as their readers continue to move to online versions of the print brands or other forms of information and entertainment entirely. We predict newspapers and magazines will shrink at average rates of 4% and 6% a year respectively to 2021. Newspapers will account for 6.5% of total adspend in 2021, down from 8.4% in 2018, while magazines will account for 3.3%, down from 4.5%. Note that our figures for newspapers and magazines include only advertising in printed editions of these publications, not on their websites, or in tablet editions or mobile apps, all of which are picked up in our internet category. The performance of print editions does not describe the overall performance of newspaper and magazine publishers.

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